Sam Radwan, co-founder of ENHANCE International, was interviewed by CNBC on January 20, 2026, regarding China's property market. Below is ENHANCE International’s related analysis.

(I) Overall Market Trend: Persistent Weakness with Limited Short-Term Improvement

Market sentiment and data performance: Over the past year or two, sentiment in China's property market has remained pessimistic. Relevant data indicate that the market has yet to emerge from a risk zone, and this situation is expected to persist until around 2030.

Housing inventory absorption cycle: In the United States, the housing inventory absorption period is approximately four months, whereas in China it reaches 24 months. This suggests that the full impact of homes currently on the market may not be fully realized until 2029. As housing inventory continues to accumulate, the downturn in the real estate market is likely to deepen further, with spillover effects already extending to multiple sectors, including healthcare.

(II) Home Price Outlook: Considerable Downside Risk Remains, with a Gradual Decline Process

Past declines: Since the property market peaked and developer defaults began to emerge, home prices have fallen by 20%.

Future decline forecast: Conservatively estimated, home prices still need to fall by another 40% before potentially stabilizing. This decline will not complete within one, two, or three years but will instead continue gradually. Signs of stabilization are most likely to emerge around 2030 or even later.

(III) Market Uniqueness and Interrelated Impacts

Characteristics of China's property market: 90% of households own homes, with an average of 1.5 homes per household. In contrast, only 69% of the U.S. population are homeowners, and only about one-third own two or more homes. Real estate has effectively become a substitute for the social safety net in China.

Correlation with savings and consumption: China’s property market is highly correlated with household savings behavior. Since 2021, household savings levels in China have roughly doubled compared with a decade earlier, reflecting growing public concern over declining property values and the resulting search for alternative means of preserving wealth. At the same time, property sales remain closely tied to housing prices. As housing values decline and real estate’s role as a de facto social safety net weakens, households are likely to adopt a long-term approach to spending and financial decision-making, which could exert a prolonged negative impact on consumer confidence and consumption.