Sam Radwan, co‑founder of ENHANCE International, spoke with CNBC on January 7, 2025, discussing the current state of China’s real estate market.
Today, the rebuilding of consumer confidence depends less on policy stimulus and direct government intervention, and more on the market working through its own adjustment process. Finding a bottom in home prices is the essential prerequisite for confidence to reset. At present, price declines remain underway—most visibly across non–tier‑1 cities—and no clear bottom signal has yet emerged; nevertheless, the steepest phase of the downdraft is expected to moderate over the course of 2025.
Compared with the previous level of around 2%, China’s 10-year government bond yield has moved into what appears to be mildly oversold territory. This reflects both the slowing pace of property price declines and the fact that a large portion of these bonds is held by domestic financial institutions—particularly insurance companies—making them sensitive to price swings that exacerbate capital pressures. As those balance-sheet strains intensify, further policy measures to push yields back up may become more likely.
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